Who is “Individual 1” in the leak case against Ian A. Brinksman?
An FBI affidavit filed October 23, 2026, says CIA contractor Ian A. Brinksman passed classified information to “Individual 1,” a Substack writer, and lists five articles by date. Capital & Empire, the outlet of journalist Aída Chávez, published one article on each of those five dates. Two report CIA assessments on Israel. The affidavit does not name Chávez, and Brinksman has been charged, not convicted.
The Affidavit and “Individual 1”
The charging document is a criminal complaint affidavit, not an indictment. FBI Special Agent John W. Althen swore it in United States v. Ian A. Brinksman, No. 1:26-mj-423, in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia, Alexandria Division. It was sworn by telephone before U.S. Magistrate Judge William E. Fitzpatrick on October 23, 2026, according to the affidavit. The Justice Department announced Brinksman’s arrest the same day, after a search of his home.
According to the complaint, Brinksman worked for a U.S. government agency in the Eastern District of Virginia from 2020 and, in 2022, became a developer for systems integration at “Company 1,” a contractor to the same agency. He held a Top Secret clearance with Sensitive Compartmented Information access, the Justice Department said. CIA Director John Ratcliffe said the FBI arrested “a contractor who provided services to CIA” after “a referral from the Agency.”
The affidavit describes “Individual 1” this way: “Individual 1 published articles on Substack and has referred to her Substack account as ‘her new independent publication’ for ‘[r]eporting on Congress, War, and political economy.’ A fundraising article reportedly published by Individual 1 in September 2026 stated ‘over the past year [Individual 1 has] published reporting based on classified [relevant U.S. government agency] assessments that I believe the public deserves to know about.’ Individual 1’s social media profile shows Individual 1 commenting in a public post, ‘I also accept leaks.’”
Capital & Empire’s publisher description reads, “Reporting on Congress, war, and political economy from inside the empire.” On September 28, 2026, Chávez wrote in a post titled “Support Independent Reporting on American Imperialism”: “Over the past year, I’ve published reporting based on classified CIA assessments that I believe the public deserves to know about.” Reuters reported the same match.
Five Dates, Five Posts
The affidavit alleges a pattern of calls, database access, and publication. Paragraph 20 says: “On or about March 11, 2026, the same date that BRINKSMAN accessed Report 1, Individual 1 posted an article on Substack with a similar content (‘Article 1’). Based on my review of Article 1, it contains certain content similar to Report 1. An Original Classification Authority has confirmed that Article 1 contains classified information up to the TOP SECRET level that reflects the information in Report 1.”
Paragraph 21 reads: “On or about May 12, 2026, BRINKSMAN called Individual 1 at approximately 8:25 a.m. (for approximately 10 minutes). Later that same day, records from the relevant government agency which owns the Classified Database reflect that BRINKSMAN accessed another classified report in the Classified Database (‘Report 2’), which was marked TOP SECRET, at 11:26 a.m. According to badge swipe records, BRINKSMAN exited the secure facility at approximately 12:57 p.m. BRINKSMAN then called Individual 1 at 1:07 p.m. (for approximately three minutes), at 4:34 p.m. (for approximately 27 minutes), at 5:04 p.m. (for approximately 10 minutes), and at 5:15 p.m. (for approximately 10 minutes). Similar to the sequence of events on March 11, 2026, shortly thereafter, Individual 1 posted an article on or about the next day, May 13, 2026, with similar content (‘Article 2’). Based on my review of Article 2, it contains certain content similar to Report 2. An Original Classification Authority has confirmed that Article 2 contains classified information that reflected classified information in Report 2.”
Capital & Empire’s archive lists one Chávez post on each date. On March 11, 2026, she published “Bahrain Imports Anti-Riot Troops as Protests Erupt Over U.S. War With Iran,” citing “national security sources.” On May 13, she published “Classified CIA Analysis Finds Trump Can’t Count on Gulf Allies for Wider Iran War,” which opens, “A classified CIA analysis circulating this week found that Washington’s Gulf allies are split over how much military support to provide.”
The affidavit places Article 3 on or about May 28, 2026, two days after Brinksman allegedly accessed Report 3. That day, Chávez published “EXCLUSIVE: Israel Privately Pressing U.S. to Kill Iran’s Lead Negotiator and Launch New Strikes,” attributed to “a classified report circulating within the U.S. intelligence community this week.” The affidavit dates Article 4 to on or about July 29 and Article 5 to on or about October 5, 2026.
The affidavit describes each article only as having “similar content” to a classified report and does not give titles or quote the articles. It says that Brinksman “was one of no more than six individuals who accessed the relevant Substack page from the federal government facility between March 1 and October 5, 2026,” and the only one who viewed all five articles and accessed all five reports.
The Two CIA-Israel Stories
The fourth date matches Chávez’s July 29, 2026, post, “EXCLUSIVE: CIA Assessment Details Israel’s Race to Make the U.S.-Israel Alliance Irreversible.” It reports that Israeli officials are pursuing “a long-term strategy to permanently enmesh Israel within America’s military, intelligence, and defense establishment.” It says the assessment was “written primarily by the CIA and circulated this week.” The affidavit says Brinksman accessed Report 4, marked Top Secret, at 10:32 a.m. on July 28.
The fifth date matches her October 5, 2026, post, “CIA Report Warns Israel Could Head Toward Civil War, Total Collapse,” co-published with Drop Site News. It begins, “Israel is at risk of civil war or state collapse, a classified CIA assessment warns, as years of genocide in Gaza and war in Lebanon and Iran deepen political, economic, and social fractures within the country.” Citing two U.S. sources, it says: “The August report, titled ‘Fracture From Within,’ was compiled by experts in the CIA’s Red Cell.” The affidavit says Brinksman first accessed Report 5 on August 24, 2026, and again on August 25, August 26, and October 1.
The July post also says, “Since the start of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, American public opinion toward Israel has deteriorated sharply.” It ends, “The CIA knows Israel is nervous.”
A Marxist Lens and a DSA Letter
Capital & Empire’s About page calls Chávez the founding editor and says, “Her reporting brings a Marxist and anti-imperialist lens to questions of power and policy.” The outlet says its reporting “starts from the premise that U.S. empire is not a force for democracy or stability, but a system built on exploitation, extraction, and violence.”
On X, Chávez replied to a post in which Joe Weisenthal wrote on October 22, 2026, that to understand capitalism, “you need to be talking to small business owners, portfolio managers, and Marxists.” Her reply read, “some of us are marxist small business owners.” Her X account, @aidachavez, is now protected.
Her X bio lists her as editor of Capital & Empire and previously at The Nation, The Intercept, More Perfect Union, Migrant Insider, and The Hill. The Nation named her its D.C. correspondent on March 16, 2021. Its author page now says she “was previously The Nation’s DC correspondent.” Capital & Empire says she was communications director and policy adviser at Just Foreign Policy before founding the outlet.
On January 25, 2022, while she was The Nation’s correspondent, Chávez signed an open letter from the Democratic Socialists of America International Committee opposing the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act. Her line reads, “Aída Chávez – DC Correspondent, The Nation.” She is listed among more than 400 “Individual signatories in personal capacity.” The letter says its signers “strongly condemn the USICA and urge members of Congress to oppose the bill.” It concerns China, not Israel. We could not verify that Chávez is a DSA member and found no public statement by her or listing by Metro DC DSA that identifies her as one.
Where DSA and Metro DC DSA Stand
In 2017, “DSA overwhelmingly endorsed BDS,” the boycott, divestment, and sanctions campaign against Israel, its BDS working group said. At its 2019 convention, DSA passed a resolution that “recommits us to solidarity with Palestine and support for the Boycott, Divestment, and Sanctions movement.” A DSA chapter wrote that the 2025 convention’s R22 resolution confirmed “our commitment to being an explicitly anti-Zionist organization.”
DSA’s national statement for the 78th anniversary of the Nakba said on May 15, 2026, “No country in the world will find peace in Zionism’s pursuit of domination.” It called for “a liberated Palestine, FROM THE RIVER TO THE SEA.” Metro DC DSA demanded “an end to all U.S. military funding and arms shipments to Israel, and a free Palestine” on July 15, 2026. Its Internationalism Working Group says it seeks “an end to US support for the Zionist ethnostate.”
A December 2024 resolution (original) asked Metro DC DSA’s general body to make the Internationalism Working Group’s Palestine work a chapter priority campaign for 2025. Proposed by that group with support from the Abolition Working Group, it reads, “Therefore, be it resolved, the General Body of the MDC DSA chapter hereby affirms the Priority Campaign status of Internationalism Working Group, and specifically work on Palestine.” The resolution says the group seeks “to leverage our position in DC to support the demands for an arms embargo on Israel and an end to US support for the Zionist regime.” Its 2025 plan lists a Chevron campaign “as part of a broader BDS push in the region” and political education “on the topics of BDS and Zionism.” Google Drive file details list the document’s owner as garyzottoli@gmail.com and show it was created and last modified on December 2, 2024. A December 13, 2021, agenda for Advisory Neighborhood Commission 6A’s Community Outreach Committee lists “Gary Zottoli, Defund MPD/Metro DSA” as a speaker. The Google account listed as the resolution file’s owner, garyzottoli@gmail.com, matches his name; the agenda does not list an email address.
The chapter’s 2026–2027 program (original) says, “While Palestinian liberation is our current priority, we also have ongoing work on solidarity with Cuba and the Philippines and aim to build more ties with organizations doing anti-imperialist work. Our Cuba solidarity work endeavors to build a base of popular support and work alongside the Cuban embassy to educate on Cuba’s history and current plight under blockade.” The same section says the chapter seeks “to eliminate as many ties in our community to the Israeli apartheid state as possible.” Neither chapter document mentions Chávez or Capital & Empire, but together they lay out the chapter’s ideological pillars: Palestinian liberation as its “current priority,” an end to U.S. support for Israel, and anti-imperialist solidarity work that extends to the Cuban embassy.
What the Affidavit Does and Does Not Say
The affidavit states no motive, ideological or otherwise. It cites a November 20, 2025, email in which Brinksman told a friend, “The lady I’ve been seeing is a journalist and recently went independent. So I’ve been helping her get that off the ground. Her venture focuses on foreign policy.” Capital & Empire’s first post appeared on October 22, 2025. That post, “CIA Weighs Shuttering China Center as Trump Shifts Focus to Venezuela,” reported that the CIA “is now considering dissolving its China Mission Center, according to two sources familiar with the matter.” An update says a CIA spokesperson dismissed the claim as “false, absurd and totally baseless.” The affidavit’s five articles all date from 2026, and it does not mention the China story.
The affiant wrote that “it is clear that BRINKSMAN and Individual 1 are in a relationship” and that he believes Individual 1 is the “lady” and “journalist” in that email. The affidavit also says the two “corroborated on a separate article” about the Middle East, posted March 13, 2026, with a title “referencing a specific country,” and that “the government has not identified classified equities in this article.” Chávez published “How AIPAC Democrats Accidentally Created an Iran War Vote Trap” on March 13.
According to the affidavit, an email notification that morning showed that Individual 1 had shared a Google Document with Brinksman “for editing,” and he allegedly suggested, “instead of ending with ‘if’ maybe change to ‘combat operations.’” Capital & Empire’s source page says, “For sensitive information, we strongly recommend using encrypted channels, such as Proton Mail or Signal at 202-557-6620,” and lists capitalandempire@protonmail.com as “an encrypted option.” The affidavit does not say that any classified report passed through the Google Document.
Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg said Brinksman “handed them to a romantic partner he knew intended to publish them.” A federal public defender representing Brinksman declined to comment, Reuters reported. Chávez “did not immediately respond to an email message seeking comment,” Reuters reported.
